THE RACE ISN’T OVER. THE MATH IS ON.
College football
conference championship scenarios
See your team’s chances to reach the conference title game. Test the results that matter and find who to root for this week.
Start with your team.
View ACC Conference →No account. Just football, possibilities, and a little math.
SMU
the ACC title game
THE CONFERENCE RACE
Two spots. Every result matters.
Chance to reach the title game
Model estimates · title-game appearance
TRY A WHAT-IF ↗
Florida State at Pittsburgh
Choose a winner to see the race recalculate.
2026 ACC title-game appearance odds
Published baseline, before any custom picks. Updated (UTC).
| Team | Appearance chance |
|---|---|
| Miami | 99.7% |
| Wake Forest | 57.8% |
| SMU | 24.2% |
| Louisville | 9.0% |
2026 Big Ten title-game appearance odds
Published baseline, before any custom picks. Updated (UTC).
Provisional: 2026 Big Ten rules unconfirmed; using latest published 2024 policy.
2026 SEC title-game appearance odds
Published baseline, before any custom picks. Updated (UTC).
2026 Big 12 title-game appearance odds
Published baseline, before any custom picks. Updated (UTC).
| Team | Appearance chance |
|---|---|
| Utah | 92.6% |
| Texas Tech | 41.2% |
| Houston | 20.5% |
| BYU | 19.8% |
2026 Pac-12 title-game appearance odds
Published baseline, before any custom picks. Updated (UTC).
| Team | Appearance chance |
|---|---|
| Boise State | 99.8% |
| Texas State | 68.5% |
| San Diego State | 14.3% |
| Fresno State | 7.2% |
Understand your team’s path
What do these championship odds measure?
The chance of reaching the conference championship game under the current model. They do not measure winning that game, winning the national championship, or being selected for the College Football Playoff.
What happens if my team wins out?
The win-out estimate locks your team’s remaining conference games as wins. All other outcomes are still simulated. It is a conditional estimate, not a guarantee that those wins will happen or that qualification is certain.
Who should I root for this week?
Open your team’s rooting guide to compare its appearance chance under each possible result. A percentage-point swing compares the two forced outcomes. Swings from different games cannot be added together.
Does 0% mean eliminated, or 100% mean clinched?
No. Rounded simulation estimates are not mathematical proofs. Very rare paths may not appear in a finite sample. Check the conference’s official qualification announcement before treating a berth as clinched or a team as eliminated.
Why can a game involving another team matter?
A result can change the conference record, which teams enter a tie, or an opponent-based tiebreaker. Some rules also consult external ratings. The methodology explains where modeled inputs and uncertain rule interpretations enter the calculation.
Are these live scores or official CFP rankings?
No. Each guide identifies the published snapshot used for its estimates. Results may change before the next refresh. For official committee rankings, visit the College Football Playoff.
YOUR SATURDAY ADVANTAGE
Don’t just watch.
Know what matters.
From the first kickoff to the final tiebreaker. One connected picture.
Find your rooting interests. ↗
A complete weekly slate, with the results that help your team reach the title game.
02 / CHANGE THE PICTUREMake your Saturday a what-if. ↗
Choose a conference. Pick a winner and see the race recalculate.
03 / BRING YOUR PEOPLE INA guide for the group chat. ↗
Find your team’s guide, then open its simulator to create a shareable graphic.